Sep 12, 2024
Brazilian Wheat Third Year in a Row of Problematic Weather
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Wheat producers in Brazil are facing the third year in a row of disappointing wheat production. The wheat harvests in 2022 and 2023 were impacted by excessive rainfall at the time of harvest resulting in low yields and poor-quality wheat. The problems this year are drought and frost.
The earlier planted wheat in states such as Minas Gerais, Goias, Bahia, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, and part of Parana has been impacted by extended periods of hot and dry conditions. The 2024 production in those states, excluding Parana, is expected to decline 25% from 1.400 million tons in 2023 to 1.045 million in 2024. This will interrupt five consecutive yearly increases. In 2019, these states produced 548,000 million tons.
Wheat production in the state of Parana is being impacted by drought in the northern part of the state and prior frosts. Two strong cold fronts during August resulted in a series of frosts/freezes that impacted the crop at the sensitive times of flowering and grain filling. Parana was expected to produce 3.8 million tons of wheat, but that has now been lowered to 2.688 million tons. The wheat acreage in the state in 2024 declined 19% to 1.153 million hectares (2.84 million acres) due to farmers preference to plant more safrinha corn.
The wheat in the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina has fared better this growing season. The 2024 wheat acreage in Rio Grande do Sul declined 11.7% to 1.280 million hectares (3.16 million acres) and the production is expected to be 4.0 million tons or up 27%. Farmers in Santa Catarina reduced their wheat acreage by 11.5% to 130,000 hectares (321,000 acres), but the production is expected to increase 33% to 400,000 tons. The big increases in production this year is because the production in 2023 in both Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina were severely impacted by torrential rains during harvest
Brazil's 2024 wheat production is estimated at 8.133 million tons compared to a domestic demand of 12.56 million tons, which means that Brazil will need to import approximately 6.5 million tons of wheat in 2024 compared to 5.67 million last year.